The Greens and ACT and the 5% barrier

There is some speculation that the Greens and ACT will not pass the 5% barrier. One word: Baloney

Of course they will. They have a tight little corner of the political spectrum. As Labour moves into the centre and battles it out with Brash, the far-right come centrist National leader, the Greens will be able to pick up the left-of-Labour vote. Supporters of the (former) Alliance will no doubt realise that Jim Anderton no longer represents their view and avoid voting for the Progressives, and they tend to be smart enough to realise that the Alliance will not be back (sorry to break it to you Span and Joe). So they should begin to congregate onto the Greens(prehaps changing the Greens a bit into a more socialist organisation in the long run?). If Labour loses ground, the mainstay of the Greens support will remain, if they gain ground it will also stay. The Greens and that area of the left tend to not swing vote and are idealistic in large.

The Greens have a better chance than ACT. But I still think ACT will get in. If National increases in support, then the tactical vote comes into play. National voters do not want to see a coalition with NZ First, so they will vote to strengthen a coalition partner they are happier with, ACT. Conversly if National begin to fall apart then voters will migrate to ACT as well. The worst situation for ACT is actually when National is in a possible position but not definitely, that would lead to a situation where possible ACT voters cram into National to tighten their chances. ACT would then plumment into oblivion.

Well, we'll all see in a few months anyway
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Blogger Joe Hendren at 6/6/05 3:48 PM said

I have just discovered I am listed as 'living in hope' on your blog.

At least its postive - I thought about listing you as 'lack of hope' but did not want to sound mean :)    



Blogger Phantasmagoric Political Junkie at 6/6/05 4:08 PM said

well, everyone is listed under something. Some are cruel, some are not. If you have something witty to replace it with I will be more than willing to change it :-)    



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