Polls, billboards, and the election

First the NBR poll.
Just Left is not surprised.
David Farrar translates what the poll means into seats.
A number of leftblogs have ignored the poll. which is fully their right to. But so to has a prominent, yet young, rightwing blog, indeed their coverage seems to be attacking polling while ignoring the poll.

In the comments to the first two seems to be people denying the poll's reliability as the NBR is a rightwing paper. That doesn't really wash with me. The polling released is done by the some company which does the internal Labour polling. The method used can cause swing (days of the week polled on, how hard you push people who won't say etc.), but it is not much.

I have one slight question on the poll though: is this a case of National being 37.5 and Labour 37.4 and the rounding makes it one percent difference? It does happen, point one percent changing to 1%. And given MoE concerns, it is fair to round, but it should be noted that before rounding they were close.

And the National billboards are trying to be funny and make a point. They will work, but only in raising their profile. I would seriously doubt if people will buy into them though, especially the iwi/kiwi beaches one, people do remember the Hikoi of 15,000+ in Wellington. That billboard is going to make people wonder about the reliability of the National billboard campaign, and thus reduce the effectiveness of the others. I.e. it will backfire due to having one billboard clearly being wrong (I'm not going to look at whether the others are right/wrong at the moment).

But it is good to see that some people have decided to take the mickey out of the National billboards with their own take on them. It is what we need, reminds me of an ACT billboard with Monty Burns on it that was near here at the last election.
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