What would happen if ACT didn't pass the 5% barrier?

Even though I think ACT will pass the 5% barrier, it is still an interesting question.

The party system on the right could develop in a number of ways. Firstly National could become a more liberal party, not as far to the right as ACT though. That would leave NZ First and United Future to battle it out for the conservative voters. The liberal/conservative split on the right is found in Norway amongst other countries.

Or National could continue to have a conservative/liberal split within itself and battle NZ First and United Future head on. That would probably limit the votes that the right would get. So probably not the greatest of ideas.

Another option is for National to allow itself to splinter into another set of parties. One covering the liberal side and another covering the conservative side. While the liberal side would probably do well have no other party going for right wing liberal voters, the conservative voters would have a three way split.

Of course, there are a plentitude of other options based on how the parties do at the election. NZ First could overtake National (although this was more likely in 2002 and is unlikely to happen at this election but maybe later elections?), which would give them the conservative vote forcing National to take the liberal path.

ACT are likely to survive this election in my book, but it is not secure and they will have to work hard. It would be a hard decision for National in particular to make if ACT did disappear. To maximise the votes on the Right it would probably be wise to go for the first option (National becomes liberal, NZ First/United Future take the conservative votes). It would mean they do not fight over the same votes and are thus seen as unable to work together. The other options would create too much infighting on the Right.

A hard decision, any thoughts?
« Home | Next »
| Next »
| Next »
| Next »
| Next »
| Next »
| Next »
| Next »

» Post a Comment