When to hit top gear

The Polling over the past few days has shown one thing- National and Labour are neck and neck, and NZ First is up into the low teens.
But both National and NZ First were preparing for a July election, and seemed to have done too well in preparing for one, forcing Helen to hold it later on. So, it's a bit of a drama really.
But the 'peaking' early idea is rather interesting. Surely Labour has been peaking early since about July last year, or National for the five months preceding that? Furthermore, if you have 'peaked' then surely you would be able to reclaim those people again fairly easily? And possibly build upon it?
I would suspect that a lot of Brash's Orewa I mob are beginning to return to his arms, based on not being Labourites anymore but not having choosen where to go. There is heaps of room for Labour to win them back, but likewise their is enough room for National to cement itself over Labour.

Then there is another problem - coalition partners. If it became clear that it would either be a National-NZ First or Labour-Green government, how would other people react? Would we see a rush for either Labour or National to stop a 'horrible' government? Or maybe a rush to United Future?

The game of the election year has only really begun to kick in. New Zealanders do strategically vote (as 2002 showed, and the 39% split ticket rate in '02), so people will react to these polls and change their voting accordingly.


(BTW- I have now answered 4 opinion polls in the past year on politics - two Wellington Central specific [unknown and Blumsky], one internal party nationwide [unknown party] and a Sunday Star Times poll. WHY ME????)
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